DEC. 2 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Shavkat Mirziyoyev will be confirmed as Uzbekistan’s president at an election on Dec. 4, a move that bodes well for ordinary Uzbeks, for the country’s neighbours and for investors. Potentially at least.

Mirziyoyev will govern with a core team of ministers that includes Rustam Inoyatov, the Uzbek intelligence chief, and finance minister Rustam Azimov. They take over from Islam Karimov, a difficult, cantankerous man who died from a stroke on Sept. 2 after ruling for 25 years.

Uzbekistan is one of the most secretive and closed-off regimes in the world but if the early signs are borne out, and there needs to be plenty of caveats, the tantalising prospect of a more open Uzbekistan is in sight.

Uzbeks need permission to leave, a deeply entrenched network of informants keeps tabs on people’s activities, forced labour is used each year to pick the massive cotton harvest, opposition journalists and politicians are locked up, corruption is beyond rife and foreign investors have found it all but impossible to keep their assets from being grabbed by the state.

Now Mirziyoyev has appeared to want to move Uzbekistan onto a new trajectory. He has talked up the prospect of investing in large infrastructure projects which will create jobs. He has also promised to strengthen the independence of the Uzbek courts and said that police will now no longer be able to raid businesses and shops on the pretext of various transgressions, an issue which had stifled private business.

Of course, talk and signing documents is cheap but importantly, also, Mirziyoyev has looked to improve relations with Uzbekistan’s neighbours, in particular with Kyrgyzstan.

Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan have for years argued over their shared border around the Ferghana Valley and at times this year, conflict has appeared likely. Now, since Karimov’s death, Mirziyoyev has ordered his officials to mend relations with Kyrgyzstan. Officials from both sides have posed for photo-ops shaking hands and documents have been signed agreeing deals on the border disputes.

Under Karimov, this detente had never seemed likely. Under Mirziyoyev Uzbek-Kyrgyz relations have suddenly never been better.

These are early days, and we are not about to witness a tectonic shift towards full-scale liberalism but increments are important and Uzbekistan under its new leadership may be headed in a more benign direction.

By James Kilner, Editor, The Conway Bulletin

ENDS