JAN. 13 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — >> I read on page 6 that Tajik president Emomali Rakhmon has made his son the mayor of Dushanbe. Why has he done this?
>> Essentially it looks as if this is a continuation of a process that has been happening for some time. Rakhmon, who has been in power since the mid 1990s, is thinking about succession and this means handing over power to his son, Rustam Emomali. Last year, Pres. Rakhmon forced through changes to Tajikistan’s constitution that should make it easier for his son to take over. A pliant parliament voted to approve changes which mean that both Rakhmon and his son will be eligible to run in a 2020 election.
>> How is the rule on presidential candidates being over 35-years-old important?
>> Put simply, it looks as if Rakhmon is hedging his bets with these constitutional changes. Rakhmon will be 68-years-old when the next presidential election comes along in Tajikistan, probably in November 2020. He may not be in the best health then and may want to give up governing. If he does, dropping the 35- year-old minimum age rule allows his son, Rustam, to stand. Rustam will be 32-years-old in Nov. 2020.
>> And the mayoral position in Dushanbe?
>> This is an important position in Tajikistan. All the country’s wealth is situated in Dushanbe. Apartment prices on Rudaki, the main avenue running through Dushanbe, are among the most expensive in the region. Rustam Emomali will also be given a sizeable budget to manage, with all its challenges and pitfalls. This is like- for-like training for the top job.
>> What has Rustam Emomali done before this?
>> He’s had a few serious jobs in Tajikistan. He has previously been the head of the country’s customs service and its main anti-corruption agency, the Agency for State Financial Control. Rustam Emomali also has an international profile as he is head of Tajikistan’s football federation. A keen footballer, he used to play centre forward for one of Tajikistan’ s top football clubs.
>> How have international organisations reacted to the promotion of Rustam Emomali as mayor of Dushanbe?
>> Predictably, many of the Western groups are frustrated. They have said for a while that Pres. Rakhmon is acting in an increasingly autocratic manner. Promoting his son to such an important position, to them, confirms this. It also builds on the feeling that Rakhmon is acting as a control freak. Tajikistan’s opposition have been hounded and imprisoned, news websites and social media are often shut down for spurious reasons. This said, security-conscious regional governments are far less likely to be bothered about the grooming of Rakhmon’s son to take over from him.
>> So, what next?
>> Keep a close eye on Rakhmon’s health and also how Rustam Emomali is perceived to perform as mayor of Dushanbe. It’s a position where, if he slips up, he can make enemies. And, the nearer the 2020 election get, the more attention you need to pay to just how Pres. Rakhmon and his son, Rustam, are positioning themselves. The opposition has been hollowed out so whatever they decide between themselves will fly.
ENDS
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(News report from Issue No. 312, published on Jan. 13 2017)
